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5 February 2017

Revenue from sugar tax could be at least £11.4 million lower than official estimates

New research from People against Sugar Tax suggests the revenue from the sugar tax this year could be £11.4 million lower than official predictions from the Treasury.

In March 2016, the Treasury predicted sugar tax revenue in 2018/19 would be £520 million. Then they said it would be £380 million, and in November, this figure was revised down again to £275 million. People against Sugar Tax research suggests the revenue will actually be somewhere between £259.4 million and £263.6 million.

When the Treasury gave the £275 million figure last November, at that point, very few pubs and restaurants had indicated what their plans were regarding the sugar tax. However, since the start of this month, we've seen reports of several pubs and restaurants who have already stopped selling full-sugar soft drinks, citing April's sugar tax as the reason.

If this unexpected trend is reflected nationwide, we think this will mean at least £11.4 million less revenue from the sugar tax.

Brook Whelan

Chief Executive of People against Sugar Tax